Why starters should wait a while to buy a home in 2026

It's January 2026, and the past few years have been a roller coaster for the Dutch housing market. After the explosive price increases in the early 1920s and the subsequent interest rate corrections, many start-ups now seem to feel like they should “finally” strike. After all, the starter transfer tax exemption has been extended to homes up to €555,000 and the NHG border offers more security than ever.

However, my advice to this year's first-purchase generation is often counterintuitive: wait a little longer.

While the urge to escape high rents in the free sector is understandable, in the current economic and political climate of 2026, there are compelling reasons to postpone signing that purchase contract for a while. In this article, I'll analyze why patience may be your biggest financial asset this year.

The “Label transformation” is still underway

In 2026, the market became extremely divided due to the energy labels. We're seeing a boom in prices for homes labeled A++++, while homes labeled E, F and G are labeled “unsellable” without huge investments.

The reason to wait? The government is currently working on new, collective sustainability subsidies that are specifically aimed at the district level. If you buy a “badly” labeled home now, you are paying for the current top prize for heat pumps and insulation materials. In twelve to eighteen months, it is expected that the increase in scale in the renovation sector will reduce prices for sustainability by at least 15% to 20%.

Stabilization after the NHG increase

At the beginning of 2026, the NHG limit was adjusted again. Historically, we have seen that the market gets a “price shock” immediately after such an increase: sellers push their prices to just near that new frontier. By buying now, you're actually paying a premium for the extra borrowing capacity that the government has just given you. Those who wait a year often buy in a market where this new frontier has already been “priced in” and the first emotional price peaks have leveled off.

The digital revolution in source data (Ockto/iwize)

We are in the middle of the transition to fully source data-driven financing. Although systems such as Ockto and iWize are already being widely used, banks' acceptance conditions are still changing. In the course of 2026, we expect banks to provide “quick-decision discounts” for buyers who provide their data 100% digitally. As a starter who is still struggling with hybrid files, you may miss out on these future interest discounts.

The cost of haste: A math

It becomes clear why waiting pays off financially when we look at the additional costs and the expected market development.

Factor situation now (Jan 2026) forecast (Early 2027)

Transfer tax Exemption up to €555,000 Possible further extension of indexation

Properties on offer Historically low (scarcity) Rising due to new construction projects '24-'25

Sustainability costs  High (shortage of professionals) Declining due to scaling up

Mortgage rate  Volatile More stable in the medium term

Waiting for the 2027 new-build wave

The housing projects that came to a standstill in 2024 and 2025 due to the increased interest rate and nitrogen problems went off en masse last year. A large part of these homes will be on the market in late 2026 and early 2027. This additional offer will alleviate the enormous pressure on existing construction (where starters are now bidding against each other).

Expert Tip: The current market often forces you to make concessions that will make you regret five years from now. By renting now and increasing your savings balance, you will soon be able to move into a home that really meets your requirements, instead of the “least bad option” that just happens to fall within your budget.

The hidden risks of foundation problems

2026 is the year in which the discussion about foundation repair in the Netherlands comes to a boiling point. Due to the changing groundwater levels in recent years, more and more homes (especially in the Randstad and on peatlands) are struggling with pile rot or subsidence.

We are currently working on a national foundation fund and mandatory foundation labels. If you buy now without this security, you are taking a huge financial risk. Waiting for the final legislation concerning the foundation label can save you tens of thousands of euros in repair costs.

When should you buy? (The exceptions)

Of course, “waiting” isn't a universal holy grail. There are situations where you do have to strike immediately in 2026:

• You will find a home that is already fully sustainable (A++++ with its own energy storage).
• You can use a specific local starter loan that ends in 2026.
• Your personal living experience outweighs maximizing your financial return.

Practical steps for the “Waiting” starter

If you decide to stay on the sidelines for a while longer, do this actively:

1. Maximize your BKR score: Repay small loans and private leases to maximize your borrowing capacity for next year.
2. Dive into source data: Make sure you have already downloaded apps like Ockto and understand what data about you is known to the tax authorities and the UWV.
3. Build your “Sustainability pot”: Every additional thousand euros you now save, you will not have to borrow money for your solar panels or heat pump at 4% or 5% interest.

The essentials

The 2026 Dutch housing market is one of extremes. Although the start-up exemption of up to €555,000 is tempting, the foundation problem, the falling costs of sustainability and the imminent new wave point to one thing: patience is a virtue. Those who buy now for fear of missing the boat (FOMO) pay the top prize for uncertainty. Those who wait will soon buy with more data, better conditions and less risk.