Why are rents rising faster than house prices? The 2026 analysis

It's 2026 and anyone following the headlines will see a remarkable phenomenon in the Dutch housing market. While house prices finally seem to be reaching a plateau after the turbulent years 24 and 25 due to stabilized mortgage rates and stricter borrowing standards, rents in the free sector are still skyrocketing. For many home seekers, this feels unfair: the threshold for buying remains high, while the “aviation” of renting becomes more unaffordable every month.

As a real estate editor and advisor, I often get asked: “How is it that my rent increases by 5% while the value of the house I live in barely increases?” The answer lies in a complex cocktail of regulations, scarcity and the shifting role of the private investor. In this article, we dissect the mechanisms behind this skew growth in 2026.

The affordable rent act and the “Flight” to the free sector

In recent years, the government has tried to regulate the rental market with the Affordable Rent Act and the extension of the points system (WWS). While this offered price protection for mid-range homes, it created an unintended side effect in 2026.

Many private landlords sold (“pounded”) their homes because the returns were no longer profitable due to regulation and higher taxes in Box 3. As a result, the supply of rental properties has drastically shrunk. For homes that do remain in the free sector (above the liberalization limit), demand is now so explosive that landlords can ask for the top prize.

House prices are curbed by the “Borrowing capacity wall”

The reason that house prices will rise less rapidly than rents in 2026 has everything to do with financiability. A buyer depends on what the bank allows based on income and source data (via Ockto/iwize).

• Interest rate stability: Mortgage rates were stable in 2026, but significantly higher than in the previous decade. This forms a natural ceiling for what people can offer.
• Energy labels: Properties with a bad label (E, F, G) lower the average price level because buyers deduct the mandatory sustainability costs from the purchase price.

When renting, this “wall” does not exist. A tenant can decide to spend 50% or even 60% of their net income on rent just because there is no alternative. There is no bank that tells a tenant: “This is irresponsible.”

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The indexation clause: An automatic price driver

One crucial difference between buying and renting is how the price adjusts to inflation.

• Buyers: Those who have a fixed-rate mortgage will not see their nominal monthly payments increase, no matter how high the inflation rate is. In fact, inflation makes the buyer's relative debt worth less.
• Tenants: Almost every rental contract in the Netherlands includes an indexation clause (usually inflation + 1%). In times of persistent wage price spirals, as we saw them in 2025, this directly translates into an annual rent increase that is independent of the market value of the property.

Comparison: Cost development buying vs. renting (2024 - 2026)

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Year                                       Average house price increase                Average rent increase (Free sector)

2024                              + 3.5%                                                        + 5.2%

2025                              + 2.1%                                                         + 6.8%

2026 (forecast)             + 1.8%                                                        + 7.5%

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The shift from ownership to use

In 2026, we will see a socio-economic shift. The group that can buy is shrinking due to the strict requirements for their own money and sustainability. The group that needs to hire starters, divorced people, migrant workers is growing rapidly.

Because the construction production of new rental properties is still lagging behind due to increased construction costs and nitrogen rules, there is an extreme scarcity. Real estate investors who remain active focus on the top segment where there are no price caps. As a result, the average rent in cities such as Eindhoven, Utrecht and The Hague rises faster than the value of the underlying stones.

The impact of energy labels: A double disadvantage for the tenant

In 2026, energy labels will weigh heavily in home value. A house labeled G declines in value because the buyer has to invest. But for the tenant in the same building, the total housing costs are actually rising: the landlord can still index the rent, while the tenant's energy bill remains astronomical.

Warning: In 2026, we will see that landlords who do become more sustainable (by label A++++) often translate this investment directly into a substantial rent increase in the event of a new mutation. The tenant therefore pays the “sustainability premium”, while the buyer finances the same sustainability at a lower mortgage rate.

Practical tips for home seekers in 2026

Although the rental market is currently rising faster, there are ways to limit the damage:

1. Check the starters exemption: With the €555,000 limit in 2026, many homes that were previously “unreachable” now fall under the tax exemption. In 2026, it may be cheaper to have a mortgage of €1,800 per month than a rent of €2,100.
2. Make use of source data: Use tools like Ockto to show that your current high rent proves that you can bear a certain mortgage burden. Some banks will finally start taking the “expensive tenant” more seriously in their underwriting policies in 2026.
3. Take a look at the WOZ cap: In the regulated sector, the rent is partly linked to the WOZ value. Because the increase in house prices (and thus the WOZ) is leveling off, this may curb future rent increases in the social and middle segments.

Key insights

The reason that rents are rising faster than house prices in 2026 is a painful interplay of factors: a shrinking supply due to stricter investor regulations, automatic inflation indexation and a buyer market that is limited by borrowing standards. While the house price is determined by what you can borrow, the rent is determined by what you have to pay out of sheer necessity.

For the long term, buying remains the best hedge against these rising costs in 2026. After all, you fix your housing costs, while the tenant is presented with the bill for the scarcity on the market every year.